منابع مشابه
Imprecise random variables, random sets, and Monte Carlo simulation
The paper addresses the evaluation of upper and lower probabilities induced by functions of an imprecise random variable. Given a function g and a family Xλ of random variables, where the parameter λ ranges in an index set Λ, one may ask for the upper/lower probability that g(Xλ ) belongs to some Borel set B. Two interpretations are investigated. In the first case, the upper probability is comp...
متن کاملImprecise Probabilities
Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...
متن کاملIgnorance and Imprecise Probabilities
Decisions or inferences sometimes have to made in situations where substantive information about aspects of the problem are either lacking or conflicting. This is often handled by constructing a non-informative prior by appealing to principles such as indifference, maximum entropy, invariance, or maximizing missing information. Unfortunately these priors and the resulting posteriors may depend ...
متن کاملImprecise and Indeterminate Probabilities
Bayesian advocates of expected utility maximization use sets of probability distributions to represent very different ideas. Strict Bayesians insist that probability judgment is numerically determinate even though the agent can represent such judgments only in imprecise terms. According to Quasi Bayesians rational agents may make indeterminate subjective probability judgments. Both kinds of Bay...
متن کاملComputation with imprecise probabilities
An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
سال: 2007
ISSN: 0888-613X
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2006.12.003